Week 6

Anwaj: "The US is threatening severe consequences if Nouri Al-Maliki returns as Iraq’s prime minister.. Reuters reported that US Special Envoy to Iraq Mark Savaya had been sidelined, with his portfolio set to be managed by US Ambassador to Turkey and Special Envoy to Syria Thomas Barrack.

Although US officials have not made any formal announcement, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein has said that Savaya is no longer an envoy. Iraqi political sources have attributed Savaya’s departure to his purported "mishandling" of sensitive issues, including Maliki’s nomination. One political observer has noted that 'Barrack has effectively been in charge' of the Iraq portfolio for weeks.

The Guardian: "Palantir, a $300bn company.. has UK government contracts worth more than £500m..

Global Counsel, a lobbying company Mandelson co-founded and part-owns.. works for Palantir"

"Former Minnesota governor [Ventura] says U.S. state should 'join Canada'... Former professional wrestler-turned politician Jesse Ventura believes 'someone seriously should contact Canada and ask them if they're open to this... Instead of Canada becoming the 51st state of America and lose their health care… I’d like to see Minnesota, all of us become Canadians'"

"Zorin OS.. enjoyed over a million downloads in just over a month.. 78 percent of those downloads came from Windows machines. That's not just Linux users going about the usual distro hopping; this is Windows users downloading an alternative OS."

CNBC: "Sweden’s Volvo Cars fell over 22% in its worst trading day ever. Here’s why.. [its CEO said] the discontinuation of EV incentives in the U.S. and China [are] contributing to 'a very challenging external environment.'"

#Mandelson #Palantir

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The Wrecking Crew, the car chase was overdone, but good action overall.. Then I watched a scene from the show See, Momoa and Bautista played brothers before?

War Machine, nice trailer. The name is not symbolic like referring to a country or an org, the movie is literally about a war machine.

There is better jutsu for that, water and beans in a pot, bring to boil, and turn off the heat. Leave it for one hour. Then drain the water, beans ready for second stage.

"With the overnight-soak method, you put water and beans in a pot, cover the beans with an extra two inches of water, and place in the refrigerator for eight to 12 hours."

"@lfeurope@mastodon.social

Europe is moving from slogans to strategy on #DigitalSovereignty, with #opensource increasingly at the core of technological autonomy.

This #FOSDEM session on global collaboration and Europe’s digital #sovereignty goals explores how participation in global open source communities can strengthen Europe’s strategic autonomy"

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#Reshare

"@GeofCox@climatejustice.social

About half of all house purchases in the UK now are for 'additional dwellings' - second homes, buy-to-lets, etc - because 10% of the population can outbid everybody else, drive up asset prices, and when it's something people can't live without, like a home, force them to pay unreasonable rents"

Housing becomes about "supply" if too many well-to-do gobble them up, reducing the said supply.

"[Oz] PM’s $4.3m clifftop home earns double rent of typical landlord.. Mr Albanese has made an array of property investments over the years. He was reported to have a 5m property portfolio just prior to getting the nation’s top job"

via @Victor@spore.social

ZME Science: "A Radical Climate Proposal Aims to Channel Seawater Into a Giant Egyptian Desert to Fight Sea Level Rise.. Flooding Egypt’s vast Qattara Depression with seawater could slightly lower global sea levels and reshape climate adaptation."

"@dantheclamman@scicomm.xyz

Comparing historical hair samples from people from when they were babies to today, a new study finds a nearly 100-fold decrease in lead from samples after the EPA's crackdown on leaded gas. Regulation works and it saves lives!"

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"@eb@social.coop

America is not the land of the free, it is the land of the fee"

The Lever: "Big Grocery’s Hidden Poverty Tax.. Low-income neighborhoods face higher food inflation than rich ones, and new research suggests market consolidation is the culprit."

Firstpost: "Russia has said India is free to source crude from any supplier and dismissed suggestions that New Delhi is moving away from Russian oil"

Link

Don't get me started on LLM tech, they are all about adjustable parameters, a modern LLM has over 1.5 trillion of them. Imagine the level of ignorance captured in that design decision. We basically know next to nothing about intelligence, we just reverse engineered some parameters from data via a black box, and called it AI.

Now we reveal where the data comes from: it is the SINE FUNCTION (with some added noise to make it look like experimental data).

df['ypred'] = np.sin(df.index)
df.plot(grid=True)

Graph

The sine function, $y = sin(x)$, has no free parameters. It is simpler, even faster to compute. However it requires the knowledge of trigonometry. Because the foolish scientist did not know this, his formulation became parameter heavy. The model with a lot of adjustable knobs represented his ignorance.

But the 7 coefficients tell us nothing in scientific terms because using the same coefficients / free parameters / "constants" approach I could turn the curve into a line, I could make it go up, or down. The structure of my "flexible (too flexible)" formulation doesn't tell me anything about the phenomena. Those free parameters represent our ignorance, not knowledge.

Then the genius says "I can reverse engineer those adjustable knobs from data!". He uses polyfit, and voila

coef = np.polyfit(df.index, df.ydata, degree)
df['ypred'] = np.polyval(coef,df.index)
df.plot(grid=True)

Graph

That is a good fit

He pulls some numbers out of his ass,

$c_0 = -0.00003$,$c_1=-0.00001$,$c_2=0.004$,$c_3=0.0003$,$c_4=-0.12$, $c_5=-0.005$,$c_6=0.4$,$c_7=0.04$

.. and uses them,

degree = 7
coef = [-0.00003,-0.00001,0.004,0.0003,-0.12,-0.005,0.4,0.04]
df['ypred'] = np.polyval(coef,df.index)
df.plot(grid=True)

Graph

He obtains the graph above. His "prediction" came close in some places, though overall not great.

I'll give an example. Let's say a scientist is looking at some data collected from nature,

df = u.data_synth_1()
df.plot(grid=True)

Graph

And he is asked to find the formulation for this. He looks at the data and says, "well I can represent this by simply multiplying powers of $x$ with some coefficients", eg $c_0 x + c_1 x^2 + ... + c_n x^n$. He thinks he is smart because you can represent any curve with such a function.

Smolin and Unzicker are right.. the "constants" or "free parameters" represent our ultimate ignorance about the world. Those parameters are basically knobs you can turn to make our formulas "fit" the experimental data. They are reverse engineered from data, they do not arise from fundamental mathematical deduction.

Unzicker: "Cosmology’s 'concordance model' uses six numbers, which are called 'free parameters' because they cannot be explained within the model but rather are fitted to the measurements. The standard model of particle physics needs not only six of them, but an impressive 17. Why 17?.. In the 1950s, a boom of particle accelerators started producing hundreds of elementary particles with spectacular collisions. In the following decades, particle physics has been busy classifying this zoo and reducing its mathematical description to 'only' 17 parameters. A few Nobel prizes have even been handed out because of this work. But should we be convinced that we have come to understand the ultimate structure of matter? In his book The Trouble with Physics, Lee Smolin comments on the 17 free parameters. 'The fact that there are that many freely specifiable constants in what is supposed to be a fundamental theory is a tremendous embarrassment.'"

"@GeofCox@climatejustice.social

From a European perspective, a central problem with 'liberal middle' Democrats is that they would simply restore the very conditions that enabled the rise of the far right in the US - so I don't think it's a question of the socialist left continuing to be marginalised for another half-century. If the Democrats succeed in getting elected, in their current form, and subsequently in office fail to change key fundamentals - such as ending American oligarchy and materially raising working people's living standards - then the far right will simply flood back again in 5 or 10 years."

Politico: "Trump prepares to let go of arms control with Russia"

"The expiration of the New START Treaty on 5 February 2026 marks the end of an era that began in 1969, when the United States and the Soviet Union launched the SALT I negotiations. For the first time in decades, there will be no treaty constraining the nuclear arms race."

The Guardian: "Fossil fuel firms may have to pay for climate damage under proposed UN tax.. Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation could also force ultra-rich to pay global wealth tax"

LBJ, Texas oil interests, and rogue CIA elements - institutionally they were not involved. Nothing deep, all on the surface

Roger Stone, The Man Who Killed Kennedy: "The JFK assassination itself became the most prime example of LBJ’s black magic. Johnson was within days of not just being dropped from the 1964 Democratic ticket, but of being politically executed, personally destroyed, and publicly humiliated by the Kennedys. A Life magazine exposé on LBJ’s corruption and vast wealth was due to be published within a week. A SWAT team of reporters was combing through LBJ’s financial transactions in central Texas. At the very moment when JFK’s Dallas motorcade was slowing on Elm Street, Don Reynolds was testifying to a closed session of the Senate Rules Committee about LBJ’s kickbacks and corruption.

Then presto! Magically, mysteriously, and tragically, John Kennedy is dead. Lyndon Johnson becomes president, and the media exposés and Senate investigation into LBJ’s corruption are deep-sixed. This was not without the help of H. L. Hunt and the Texas oil industry, which helped navigate, fund, and advise Johnson’s career in exchange for prized government contracts and favorable legislation. The oil magnate would later be one of the top financiers of the assassination in Dallas."

#Thorium #Reshare

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The re-release of Endgame can help to reclaim "the highest grossing movie" title, previously lost to Avatar because of its re-release.

Is Marvel re-releasing Endgame with a few added scenes for Doomsday connection? This is your opportunity to digitally remove Stark's goatee, so VVD can have it.

Trek did it best

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How is the reveal going to be? Evil twin reveal needs to have a shock factor.

"According to the comics, Tony Stark's twin brother is Doctor Doom and we might see this in live-action as well. Although this is currently just a normal fact and a rumor, if they make it comic-accurate, this is what we can expect."

King Dollar policy of Volcker wasn't all rainbows and unicorns, it hurt US trade balance that led to Plaza Accords which then led to real estate bubble in Japan and that led to other side effects..

The Motley Fool: "Trump Is Cheering and Potentially Hinting at a Weak U.S. Dollar"

Kevin Warsh: "[2024] Washington writ large [was] trying to design a set of policies that were good for asset holders, made the stock market go up every day, [that was] bad for the folks that are living on their W2 income, that don't own assets, that just have income, you're taking risks with their paychecks every day...

[I]f the focus from the central bank were on the real economy, the financial markets will take care of itself. The real economy is growing strongly, financial markets will be fine. But if the focus is on financial markets, that doesn't necessarily mean the hard working people in the real economy will do as well"

F24: "Britain on Tuesday unveiled its first national plan to curb 'forever chemicals,' seeking to cut risks to human health and the environment, the government said. PFAS, used in products from cookware to food packaging, persist for decades and accumulate in nature, posing threats likely to endure for hundreds of years."

CNBC: "Gold and silver rebound after historic wipeout as analysts say thematic drivers stay intact"

I love it.. Mandelson is a "New Labour" guy, one of those Clintonite Brits, economic right social left type "progressive". We can enjoy watching them sink.

CNN: "The latest tranche of documents has revealed that [Peter] Mandelson appeared to leak sensitive UK government tax plans to Epstein. They also show that his partner, Reinaldo Avila da Silva, regularly received undisclosed payments from him."

It looks like the Winsdors booted out their troublemaker right on time.. If he was still a royal he would have been a royal pain in the ass right now.

Corps are your tyrants, America. Their silent opression is worse than any kind of government can bring to bear.

Tubers do this too.. And ppl make fun of China using code words to bypass censorship.

"It's because the words like die or suicide are often censored on platforms like Tiktok.. people started saying [unalive] instead."

"@GeofCox@climatejustice.social

[W]hile living standards have stagnated for most people.. the wealthy and privileged have continued to get much wealthier. About half of all house purchases in the UK now are for 'additional dwellings' - second homes, buy-to-lets, etc - because 10% of the population can outbid everybody else, drive up asset prices, and when it's something people can't live without, like a home, force them to pay unreasonable rents - further increasing inequality, both directly and indirectly, by sucking money out of local economies into elite enclaves."

No, Xi is not a minor princeling. Other princelings tend to be sons, nephews of a Mao general, but generals are dime a dozen. Xi's father did no one else could, he gave the Red Army refuge when they were down on their knees, in a bad shape, facing certain ruin. Xi Zhongxun saved them. IMO that makes his son one of the top princelings.

It is interesting China, despite living under a system that enforced equality for many years, still has an informal pseudo-royalty ranking system within its party, I am talking about their "princelings". Basically closeness to Mao in history imbues a man with added rizz, they get status via that association.

We can't blame the banks on the lending capacity issue.. The debacle demonstrates that fundamental changes need to be systemic not nibbling around the edges. If banks are to be supplanted, harming everything else done by banks is a risk.

The idea was since stablecoins are backed by treasuries which earn interest, why not pass that interest along to the customer who holds the coin? That was good choice. But it was too good for the banks' comfort, they lobbied heavily against the crypto bill and managed to kill it. They had a clause inserted discouraging yield offerings which negated a big purpose of the bill.

"[1/15] Bank of America CEO.. warned that interest-bearing stablecoins could pull as much as $6 trillion out of the US banking system, arguing that large-scale deposit migration would reduce lending capacity and push borrowing costs higher."

"The Arleigh Burke-class destroyer and Virginia-class submarine are two of the U.S. Navy’s most sophisticated vessels. The destroyer uses about 2,600 kg of [rare earth elements], while the submarine demands a whopping 4,600 kg. These elements support radar, sonar, missile guidance, and propulsion systems critical for both offensive and defensive missions.. While these elements are crucial to U.S. defense, more than 70% of REE imports come from China"

Yahoo Finance: "Larry Fink critiqued capitalism during his opening remarks at the World Economic Forum on Tuesday. 'Capitalism has focused wealth in the hands of a narrow minority since the end of the Cold War', said the BlackRock CEO."

Ortayli counts Bernard Lewis as one of his influences.. I call him Bernard "Time for Toppling" Lewis. Rabid neo.

Yes this is the same University of Chicago that gave rise to "Chicago School of Economics", basically the neolib, Reaganist agenda. There are always bizarre things going on over there.

Inalcik found acceptance in the West (esp. Uni. of Chicago); migration theories that favored one migration over others as an ideology was useful for the Anglo. By placing him on a pedestal they encouraged an army of followers to continue his research. Remember the nationalist narrative has an "alien" Turk who arrives Asia Minor, builds civilisation where non existed, later backstabbed by bad Arabs (don't like them, stay away from their region), and always try to reconnect with distant cousins in Asia (stirring shit up in Russia and China's backyard).

Koprulu, Inalcik made a lot of mistakes.. But they were "useful", that's why they were "state sponsored historians". Inalcik's student Ortayli, though not as bright as his elders, found some renown in local nationalist circles. They help advancing the nationalist project of 1923. But, like Giordano Bruno said "if the first button of a man's coat is wrongly buttoned, all the rest are sure to be crooked.". That has always been the problem of the TR project, their initial mistake created massive intractable problems downstream. One issue alone, Kurdish seperatism was largely triggered because of the crooked "Turkish" identity and ended up costing the state 1.8 trillion dollars over 40+ years. Even if this issue is somehow "solved" today, the damage has been massive. Anatolians did that to themselves.

Lowry: "In one generation the explanation for the question of the identity of the early Ottomans had been transformed from one which styled them as an admixture of Islamicized Byzantines and Turks (Gibbons); to Turks who attracted a large number of Byzantine converts to their banner due primarily to the heterodox form of Islam they practiced (Langer/Blake); to an amalgam of Turkish tribes and groups whose administrative skills were inherited from earlier Turkish states in Anatolia, the Seljuks, and the Ilhanids (Köprülü); and finally, to a group of dedicated Muslim gazis who came together for the express purpose of fighting and converting the Christian infidels in the border marches of northwest Anatolia (Wittek)...

Somewhat paradoxically, while on one hand denouncing Gibbons’ theory as 'groundless speculation,' Inalcık seemingly adopted its underlying argument in 1973, when he stressed (as had Wittek) that a common background tied together the Byzantine frontier troops with the Muslim gazis and that this led to assimilation. All this in turn shaped what he described as: '

a true 'Frontier Empire,' a cosmopolitan state, treating all creeds and races as one, which was to unite the Orthodox Christian Balkans and Muslim Anatolia in a single state.

Inalcık leaves unanswered one key question: What were the factors in the early fourteenth century (prior to the advance into the Balkans) which had served to unite the Bithynian Christians and Muslims into a single state? While citing the role played by one Byzantine Greek, Köse Mihal, who joins forces with the Ottoman rulers Osman and Orhan 'as a famous example of the process of assimilation,' he states that this Köse (beardless) Mihal was a 'Gazi' and 'a Greek frontier lord who accepted Islam.' I have encountered no source which alleges that Mihal was a Muslim prior to the closing years of the reign of Osman (1299–1324). Less clear are the reasons behind Inalcık’s insistence on making Köse Mihal a Muslim"

via @infobeautiful@vis.social

It sounds like 2D trust vectoring (eg up and down) would be more efficient than 3D. Simplifies design and you can still get 3D vectoring by additional maneuvering. #J-50

They call the Chinese J-50 the "carrier killer"?