Week 7

Energies Media: "U.S. selects projects for major funding round supporting clean hydrogen production, storage, transport and end use.. One of the winners under Area of Interest 18 is GTI Energy of Illinois, which will pilot a novel feedforward gasifier control system. Simply put, this involves optimizing gasifier feedstock handling to amplify hydrogen generation from biomass and waste materials.

This particular development includes a lifecycle and techno-economic analysis for a 500-tonne-per-day hydrogen plant. There has been a lot of attention on this selection because of the expectations surrounding it. The energy industry experts suggest that sustainable feedstocks might play a crucial role in future energy markets."

IC: "At a time when Israel and the United States are preparing to launch strikes on Iran (which may be wide strikes), we notice that Israel is taking very dangerous steps in the West Bank. The problem is that the West Bank does not receive enough media coverage, and many people do not care about what is happening there. This “distraction” and 'blackout' give Israel a greater chance to move without pressure or monitoring."

TAC: "Palm Beach’s Democratic district attorney, Krischer spent years going after Rush Limbaugh for pain pills—raiding drugstores, seizing records, and leaking information—before finally dropping all charges. But when the Palm Beach police handed him a child sex ring implicating Epstein, a major Democratic donor, Krischer intentionally tanked the case."

"@dbattistella@mstdn.ca

Annie Lennox is under attack from zionists after condemning the Israeli genocide in Gaza on her IG account.

'The genocide in Gaza is a GENOCIDE. No more interpretations required. And it’s not over. It is a long term plan to annihilate the Palestinians and keep them trapped in this caged Armageddon.'"

TASS: "Russia’s first high-speed train to be tested in 2027.. The test site will be the route segment from Zelenograd to Tver"

Douglas is basically playing Gordon Gekko with a rifle.. The story, its backdrop is interesting..

Another good recommendation, Beyond the Reach..

Firstpost: "Don't send money to Ukraine, focus on your own economy, Hungary's Orban tells EU"

Pettis, Trade Wars are Class Wars: "Changes in the income distribution affect all of these variables [like savings, consumption, investment] and therefore have important economic consequences. While most people spend close to everything they earn on goods and services, the rich do not. There is only so much a person can consume, no matter how expensive his tastes. Give most people an extra dollar, and sooner or later it will get spent buying something that provides jobs and incomes to others. Give that same extra dollar to a rich person, however, and it will probably be used to accumulate additional assets.

For the world as a whole, rising inequality means the value of those assets is necessarily contingent on continued increases in spending by people who have progressively lower shares of national income. The only way to make this work is with rising debt. The economists Michael Kumhof, Romain Rancière, and Pablo Winant found an almost perfect relation between rising income concentration in the United States in the 1920s and rising U.S. household indebtedness in the years before the Great Depression.

Marriner Eccles, Franklin Roosevelt’s Federal Reserve chairman, understood that this was why the American economy was so fragile in the 1920s despite the apparent burst of postwar prosperity. To Eccles, the root problem was the shift in the U.S. distribution of income from the masses to the elites."

IC: "Israel’s Extermination, Ethnic Cleansing against Palestinians Escalate"

TAC: "War and ‘Covert Action’ Are Not How to Deal With Iran.. The track record of such interventions in the Middle East speaks for itself."

If they are doing shady shit that means the executive ordered them to. Another path, and most do not know this, is via commitee chairmen in Congress who control agency budgets.. They have a lot of power over the agencies. In some cases they can order them around and get "things done". If a powerful senator asks for something from G-Money Kash, he might just do it. It all goes from surface, down. Moneyed interests -> politician -> government. US has no deep state.

The three letter agencies have to follow a lot of rules, regulations.. In that sense the CIA is no diferent from DMV.

Hoover did some good things too.. the fingerprint system, the forensic labs..

Edgar Hoover did some shady shit but I would not go as far as saying he was "deep state". If he were he would have something to do w JFK's assasination. But he wasn't involved. LBJ and Texas oil interests did that completely on their own.

TAC: "It’s a story Washington tells itself whenever reality grows uncomfortable: China is about to collapse. The People’s Republic of China (PRC), we are assured, is a brittle, illegitimate regime on the brink of popular revolt. Once it falls, a friendly democratic China will emerge—and America’s ruling class won’t have to change anything that they’ve been doing or thinking about since the end of the Cold War.

It’s all wishful thinking."

IC: "The new Axis of Resistance: Sino-Russian technological Enhancement of Iran’s Endurance.. The most significant development has been the deployment of China's YLC-8B 3D long-range surveillance radar."

You find logical mistakes with LLMs all the time... When I was coding the previous indicator, I uploaded its output to LLM, asked for feedback. LLM immediately started spitting out potential "improvements" to "fix it" because the indicator wasn't exactly at crisis points. It could not make the conceptual jump that the indicator could be a leading indicator, didn't have to be exactly on the dates of crisis. There is a lack of perspective.. You know the "step back look at the big picture" sort of deal.

The old coot lost it himself so we can't completely blame his students at this point... Many AI practitioners got sucked into this method during the hype cycle. What will they do when it's over?

Coded this one up based on probabilistic matrix factorization, Salakhudtinov's method (the rare Hinton student who didn't lose his shit on this new wave of "AI"). $R_{ij} = \mu + U_i^T V_j + \epsilon_{ij} $ where $U,V$ are random variables, you use (Gibbs) sampling to find the true distribution based on data. There is good amt of mathematical representation in the model (not a black box approch like neural nets where you stuff data in it, turn the crank, find magic values for free parameters).

First version of a new probabilistic recommender made a good pick..

I guess Mrs Trump had to be included for symmetric response.. She is not an orange person, just married to one.

😂 😂 😂

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Harvard Business Review: "Because AI can fill in gaps in knowledge, workers increasingly stepped into responsibilities that previously belonged to others. Product managers and designers began writing code; researchers took on engineering tasks; and individuals across the organization attempted work they would have outsourced, deferred, or avoided entirely in the past.

Generative AI made those tasks feel newly accessible. These tools provided what many experienced as an empowering cognitive boost: They reduced dependence on others, and offered immediate feedback and correction along the way. Workers described this as 'just trying things' with the AI, but these experiments accumulated into a meaningful widening of job scope. In fact, workers increasingly absorbed work that might previously have justified additional help or headcount.

There were knock-on effects of people expanding their remits. For instance, engineers, in turn, spent more time reviewing, correcting, and guiding AI-generated or AI-assisted work produced by colleagues. These demands extended beyond formal code review. Engineers increasingly found themselves coaching colleagues who were 'vibe-coding' and finishing partially complete pull requests. This oversight often surfaced informally—in Slack threads or quick desk-side consultations—adding to engineers’ workloads."

They are bunch of Clintonite, economic right / social left parasites. FDR would have them shot.

I bet these guys still think housing issue is about "supply" since they are all about "abundance".

Axios: "Ezra Klein's Abundance movement is getting some backup: A new political group is urging Democrats to embrace 'pro-growth,' deregulatory policies with an eye toward 2028, according to plans first shared with Axios."

"@donni@mastodon.social

What a time to be alive, grimly determined to enjoy the feeble freedoms still available for now"

All neighbors of Asia Minor have Kurdish minorities and had their own issues, but none of them spent 1.8 fucking trillion dollars on a war.

But of course there is a smart way of going about this artificial construction, and not-so-smart way of going about it. The word Italy is tied to that region, there is historical basis for it, anyone labeled with it there will not object that much.

The word "Turk" on the other hand, indicating someone who arrived, "brought civilisation where none existed", somehow became the dominant culture in the region, oh btw, whose ethnicity is also the racial basis for the entire world (Brasilians are all Turks they just don't know it) will not be an unobjectionable label. The backdrop of the idenity is bunch of fairy tales, with no basis in reality. Italian identity would (and did) ease the construction of a state in that region, Turk identity would not. A Kurdish seperatist movement that cost over 1.8 trillion dollars and caused the death of tens of thousands is proof enough.

The quote was taken from Taner Akcam's book From Empire to Republic.

He is speaking some truth.. National identity is mosty constructed. Gellner would agree.

Italian President d'Azelglio: "[1861] We have created Italy, now let us find [i.e., create] the Italians.’

Deodato - Area Code 808 #music

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Jacobin: "The United States is a global anomaly in our collective delusion about the power of charity to address human suffering. A far better approach would be to guarantee inalienable economic rights and structure society around their fulfillment."

Their play was UK econ not doing well, DE is about to grow thanks to new cheap pool of labor from the East Germany, ergo UK could not maintain the peg to Deutsche Mark when the two were headed to seperate directions hence the short.

Kevin Warsh, another SD / Soros protege

Druckenmiller talks about the days when he bet against the pound with Soros.. he says "we talked to Scott at the UK office, he told us the things are not going well over there", Scott as in current SecTreas.

CNBC: "Real estate investors, both individual and institutional, bought one-third of all single-family residential properties sold in the second quarter of 2025."

They keep bringing up this subject for Ukraine (mostly to undermine the negotiations) but actually the real issue is, and has always been security guarantees for Russia, hasn't it? Russia invaded because of the Western / NATO beligerance, failing to guarantee its security, and ethnic Russians in Ukraine.

Reuters: "Senior Russian diplomat says Moscow also needs security guarantees"

NYT: "Epstein Files Reveal Scope of Ghislaine Maxwell's Role in Clinton Circle.. [Maxwell] helped advise on the kickoff of the Clinton Global Initiative and arranged for $1 million in funding for it, emails show."

"An elderly lady chastised [Abraham] Lincoln for trying to 'make friends' with Southerners, saying he should destroy his enemies, since he had the power to do so. 'Why, madam,' Lincoln replied, 'do I not destroy my enemies when I make them my friends?'"

Ryan McMaken: "[2024] It should go without saying that asking generals and other Pentagon bureaucrats about defense spending is like asking your barber if you need a haircut. They are hardly disinterested observers.

So, it’s not surprising at all that the usual pentagon uniformed technocrats, after failing their audit for the seventh time in a row, remain unrepentant. Last month, after failing to provide documentation showing the Pentagon actually knows what it does with its money, the DoD engaged in the song and dance we have come to expect. For example, the Pentagon’s CFO Michael McCord announced that in spite of its abysmal performance in its audit, the Department 'has turned a corner in its understanding of the depth and breadth of its challenges.' 'I think we’re making progress,' he added.

That’s swell, but it’s unclear that this 'progress' amounts to much given that last year, the Pentagon admitted it can’t account for 63% of nearly $4 trillion in assets.

The Pentagon has never passed an audit since the agency became legally obligated to carry them out in 2018. Not that any of this matters in terms of any real consequences for the privileged class of parasite tax-eaters that are high ranking military officers and their corporate cronies at places like Boeing...

Moreover, the dollars that go to the DoD directly are just part of the spending on so-called 'defense.'... The VA, after all, is just an agency tasked with spending the deferred costs of previous military operations. That is, the VA delivers the benefits to veterans who were promised ongoing compensation—in the form of healthcare and other benefits—for military 'service.' Without VA benefits, the Pentagon would never be able to recruit the troops it needs for its next round of foreign policy debacles. Thus, any true accounting for military budgets has to account for the long-term personnel costs that become apparent in VA spending...

When we look at these.. agencies combined, the spending is astronomical... After nearly 25 years of nearly continuous war.. the costs of veteran’s benefits have soared, meaning that the total combined costs of military and defense spending are now 60 percent above their old Cold War peak.

None of this, by the way, takes into account the immense contribution to the national debt made by defense spending. In the 2024 fiscal year, the US paid $884 billion in interest payments on the debt. It’s safe to say that federal interest payments would be hundreds of billions of dollars lower were it not for military and defense spending.

The cost of various failed military occupations contributes much to this endless gravy train for the military, but much of the waste now comes in the form of technology spending. This spending on newer and more expensive toys for government agencies often amounts to little more than corporate welfare. The F-35, for example, is the quintessential example.. that’s $1.7 trillion down the drain in terms of actual defense. But it sure has made many of the Pentagon’s 500,000 'private' contractors rich.

Hartung has also noted that the Pentagon’s tech spending—i.e., corporate welfare — has now begun flowing in every larger quantities to Silicon Valley. The alliance between Silicon Valley and the Pentagon has substantially grown in recent years... Taxpayer dollars accounted for 56 percent of Palantir’s revenue during the period, while actual private-sector revenues disappointed. Silicon Valley is increasingly fueled by government contracts, and defense spending is a growing part of this.

It remains to be seen what any of this has to do with actually effective deterrence, diplomacy, or defense. But, it does help build a corps of corporate welfare-queen lobbyists who will fight tooth and nail to prevent any meaningful cuts to defense spending."

Anatolian Agency: "Police clashed with anti-NATO protesters in Italy’s southern city of Napoli, local media reported on Monday... The clashes erupted when a group, predominantly composed of young individuals carrying banners condemning NATO and chanting slogans against it, attempted to breach the security perimeter around San Carlo Theatre where a concert was scheduled to mark the alliance's 75th anniversary, the state-run ANSA news agency reported."

Times of India: "Italy Burns In Anti-NATO Strike, Dockworkers Block Ports"

RT: "The UK has given Russia every reason to view it as a party to the Ukraine conflict, including by deploying troops on the ground, Moscow’s ambassador to London, Andrey Kelin, has said."

Epstein's expertise seems to be finance, international or otherwise, where he could bring his many contacts to bear, esp as it relates to government. Here he could act as a fixer he knew a lot of people, especially through Democrats. He visited Clinton White House at least 17 times. Those contacts would continue into the Obama WH, he greased the wheels there at the DOJ for that 2015 deal outlined below.

Forbes: "Buried within the more than three million documents released by the Department of Justice last Friday are contracts and payment records identifying two previously unreported billionaire clients of Jeffrey Epstein: real estate mogul Mortimer Zuckerman and Ariane de Rothschild, a Rothschild heir by marriage.

According to the files, Epstein provided estate planning and possibly other financial services for Zuckerman and de Rothschild. Together, they appear to have paid him $45 million—an unusually high sum for the work he said he was performing, according to two estate planning experts who spoke with Forbes.. 'The [industry] rules of ethics require fees to be reasonable,' said one. 'Those fees are insane.'..

A contract, dated October 5, 2015, outlines a $10 million payment to Epstein from de Rothschild’s firm Edmond de Rothschild (Suisse) for 'a variety of strategic business matters.'.. Those 'strategic business matters' may have involved Epstein helping the Rothschild’s firm reach a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice after some U.S. patrons of its banks hid assets in Switzerland. While the final, signed contract does not mention the settlement, what seems to be an earlier draft from September 2015 tied Epstein’s compensation to that deal’s outcome."

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All of Epstein's wealth is accounted for now, we know when he got his payments, from whom. See the article above.

Cribb: "When ecosystems fail, civilisation follows.. A new UK security assessment warns that ecosystem collapse is no longer an environmental issue alone – it is a direct threat to global security, prosperity and human survival"

Graph shows a low for right now. Does that mean US is falling into recession, or already is in recession? Probably already in one. Signal fired 2024'ish and the aftermath is now...

Current GDP numbers could be misleading, true unemployment, affordability crisis prove ppl's situation is dire. Top 10% are livin' la vida loca, they shop, consume, buy all the houses (restricting supply), the rest cannot find a place to live, maybe consider selling a kidney to pay for their cough medicine bcz healthcare is broken. The moment they escape poverty they get hit with additional costs, their upward mobility is stulted. They are living the American nightmare.

Crisis points are at indicator lows, and those happen right after indicator highs.. The highs are places when trouble is signaled, then it arrives. The measure can be predictive.

df = u.get_pd().read_csv("/opt/Downloads/usd_oil_ir.csv", \
                          index_col="Date", parse_dates=True)

lookback = 100

df =  (df - df.rolling(window=lookback).mean()) / \
       df.rolling(window=lookback).std()
df['crash_ind'] = df.sum(axis=1).rolling(window=lookback*2).mean()

df['crash_ind'].plot()

u.plot_crises()

Data

Low, high.. That is somewhat relative. Maybe we can detect that via a z-score, deviation from a running average with certain lookback window, with it we could generate this signal. Compute z for all three, add them (their scale now being the same), voila.

Stanley Druckenmiller says one of his crisis indicators is dollar, oil and interest rates going up / being high at the same time.

"@xan@xantronix.social

everybody telling me to just relax and enjoy vibe coding rn"

#LeCun #Robotics

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NYT: "An A.I. Pioneer Warns the Tech ‘Herd’ Is Marching Into a Dead End.. Yann LeCun helped create the technology behind today’s chatbots. Now he says many tech companies are on the wrong path to creating intelligent machines."