Week 15
IC: "2028 Dems Distance from AIPAC but Still Back Israel"
The Lever: "Stacking The Bench In Favor Of Super PACs.. The former lead lawyer in a right-wing effort to block a Maine law limiting corporate and billionaire influence in elections is now a judge on the federal court ruling on the measure, thanks to Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine)."
It is unlikely they take any action
TAC: "Congress Can End Trump’s Unconstitutional War in Iran"
"@ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us
As I have pointed out before, the problem is not so much that the UK doesn't have an industrial strategy, its that the one it does have (whatever claims made otherwise) is always focussed on the preferences/needs of financial services... if you needed some further evidence; while most of the economy is essentially flatlining or worse, somehow financial services is experiencing a major revival from its transient problems.. as usual Govt.s listen to bankers!"
The Guardian: "Britain’s financial services companies have reported a strong recovery in activity at the start of the year, in a surprise boost to the government after a gloomy end to 2025.. Banks, insurers and investment managers said their businesses were growing, with a positive balance of nearly two-thirds noting an expansion, according to a long-running survey"
How did I pick up actor resemblences to Russian gov personalities..? For some reason while thinking one for Medvedev I thought I had to pick a Brit. So I picked Hugh Laurie. Then I found out in Russia people already say Medvedev looks a lot like Emperor Nicholas II, who was the first cousin of King George V of United Kingdom who looked like his twin. That must have been the "Britness vibe".. That is probably an insult to any Russian government figure.
The original Worcester sauce (the "shire" is redundant) is soy free, the US version added that. Americans mucking it up again?
The result could change if Iran's Clout is taken to be 100. They close the Strait, you can't make them open it, their air defense takes potshots at US aircraft, can't find them / destroy them. US allies are bombed, they are running out of their defense capability whereas Iran still has tens of thousads of drones and missiles at the ready.
The final position ~63 is in the middle of E3/China and US, strong nuclear checks, but civilian use of nuclear tech still permitted? JCPOA+?
u.get_bdm().run_simulation('iran2026.csv')
Predicted Outcome: 63.79
Actor Initial Final Shift
Israel 95 64.89 -30.11
U.S. Administration 75 63.77 -11.23
Iran 10 62.90 52.90
China 40 63.52 23.52
Saudi Arabia & UAE 60 63.61 3.61
The European Union (E3) 45 63.55 18.55
Iran: Position at 10 meaning complete withdrawal of Western forces and reparations. Their "resolve" is high; as a regime fighting for its internal survival, they have almost no room to compromise without appearing weak to their remaining domestic supporters.
US: They want a stable end-state that allows oil to flow again. Their resolve is lower (70) because domestic pressure on fuel prices and potential troop deployments. Position at 75.
China: At 40, they need the Strait open for energy security but they want to maintain Iran as a regional counterweight to US.
The Gulf: They want the Iranian threat neutralized but do not want to be the target of Iranian retaliation => position at 40.
The EU: U.S. at 75 and Israel at 95 are pushing for heavy concessions or regime change, the E3 traditionally prioritize the preservation of the non-proliferation regime over the collapse of the Iranian state.
print (open("iran2026.csv").read())
Actor,Position,Clout,Salience,Resolve
Israel,95,80,95,90
U.S. Administration,75,100,85,70
Iran,10,65,100,95
China,40,70,60,50
Saudi Arabia & UAE,60,50,80,60
The European Union (E3),45,40,70,40
Time to run a Bruce Mesquita type game theoretic simulation on the Iran conflict? Now have brand new code for it.
IC: "Hormuz Crisis Threatens Global Food Supply, Grocery Prices"
The Lever: "Big Money Can’t Kill This Plan To Save Democracy.. In a blow to corporations, Montana’s Supreme Court has ruled in favor of a proposed ballot initiative that would effectively block Citizens United."
Religion re-introduced left-wing concepts, ie equality back in the zeitgeist. It warned against over concentration of wealth, made possible because land-centric farmer could produce surplus whose side effects are the many ills we know from history, lords, kings that could raise armies and fight, and a section of the society ending up slaves, serfs, the new underclass... True religion always aimed to fight that. It fought against Rome, it was against inequality. Jesus was killed by the elites of his time by the harshest punishment reserved for terrorists because his message went against the interests of the rich.
A pet theory mine has been religion is created (or sent by God) to reintroduce hunter-gatherer concepts back into the society whose arthritic farmer ways worsened the quality of life. A lot of religions have fasting. Well fasting simulates the day and the life of a typical hunter gatherer, sometimes you have food, sometimes you go hungry. Constant presence of protein, grains is somewhat inhuman, frankly. Our biology is not suited for it.
Wiki: "In the biblical Book of Genesis, Cain and Abel are the first two sons of Adam and Eve. Cain, the firstborn, was a farmer, and his brother Abel was a shepherd. The brothers made sacrifices, each from his own fields, to God. God had regard for Abel's offering, but had no regard for Cain's. Cain killed Abel and God judged it murder...
The story of Cain and Abel is widely interpreted in academic biblical scholarship as a symbolic tale reflecting early agricultural society’s tensions - such as those between nomadic herders and settled farmers"
NPR: "[2025/9] Trump does not have the authority to change the department [of defense's] name without congressional action. The legal name was established by Congress in 1949, when it renamed the newly unified military service branches under a new "Department of Defense" following World War II... constitutional scholar Steve Vladeck confirmed that, while the president is free to refer to the Pentagon by whatever name he chooses, its 'legal name can't change without Congress.'"
Nice
"@Natasha_Jay@tech.lgbt
Is it crazy how saying sentences backwards creates backwards sentences saying how crazy it is?"
"@nickofnz@mastodon.nz
I’m proud to report that Greenpeace is sending a ship to support the Global Sumud Flotilla in its mission to break Netanyahu’s genocidal siege of Gaza"
"@ben@werd.social
You know, when I lived in the other place, the one that some people decry as socialism or whatever, I could confirm my pay as you go taxes for the year in a few clicks on a free website. Anyway, many hours with TurboTax later, I’ve filed my 2025 return. Please clap. I have never encountered more.. egregious form filling than in these United States."
Ars Technica: "OpenClaw gives users yet another reason to be freaked out about security.. The viral AI agentic tool let attackers silently gain admin unauthenticated access. For more than a month, security practitioners have been warning about the perils of using OpenClaw, the viral AI agentic tool that has taken the development community by storm. A recently fixed vulnerability provides an object lesson for why."
"@jalefkowit@vmst.io
Says a lot that we just launched four people to the moon in a somewhat lightly tested rocket, and so far the least reliable part of it has been the Microsoft desktop software"
"Artemis II astronauts report Microsoft Outlook crashes in space"
NATO and presence in Europe are big money makers for the military-industrial complex. Notice how their tools in the Congress went to work immediately to make sure that scheme kept going. The US political system is basically a racket. Money talks. The rest is theater.
F24: "[2025/12] US lawmakers on Wednesday passed a sweeping defense policy bill, signaling ironclad bipartisan support for Europe and delivering a blistering repudiation of President Donald Trump's increasingly hostile posture toward NATO and America's closest allies... The bill bars US troop levels on the continent from falling below 76,000 for more than 45 days and restricts the removal of major military equipment, effectively tying the administration's hands on any rapid drawdown"
CNN: "[D]espite Trump’s claims that he can withdraw the United States from the alliance, a law passed by Congress in 2023 says the move would require the advice and consent of the Senate, with two-thirds of senators in agreement, or an act of Congress.. The bill was co-sponsored by then-Sen. Marco Rubio, who is now the US secretary of state, and Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia. It was later passed as part of the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act"
Bury 'Em Deep looks like a Charles Bronson movie (made in 2025?), apparently the lead is a Bronson impersonator turned actor, Robert Bronzie, who played in multiple Bronson type movies acting like him.
Reuters: "At least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity is at a halt following Ukrainian drone attacks, a disputed attack on a major pipeline and the seizure of tankers, according to Reuters calculations based on market data. The shutdown is the most severe oil supply disruption in the modern history of Russia"
Times Now: "As per an ABC News report, Iran may have used passive infrared detection system to down the US F-15E Strike Eagle... The incident marks the first confirmed instance during this war when a US piloted aircraft was downed by Iran, immediately raising questions about American air superiority. The situation is further complicated by reports that additional US aircraft - including an A-10 - were also hit during the same operational window...
Passive infrared detection systems are fundamentally different from the conventional radar. Unlike traditional radar-based systems, passive infrared detection works by identifying heat signature emitted by an aircraft - its engines, exhaust plume, and aerodynamic friction. This method does not emit signals, leaves no electronic signature to detect and cannot be easily jammed by standard electronic warfare systems."